Fossil fuel power spending expected to decline by around 25% to $54bn a year, says Wood Mackenzie [Image: Unsplash/S Mccutcheon]
Asia Pacific wind and solar investments could double to over $1 trillion over this decade to 2030 compared to the previous decade, according to Wood Mackenzie.
In contrast, fossil fuel power investments are expected to decline by around 25% to $54bn a year, the analyst found.
Under the current transition decade, subsidies across Asia are rolled back, while stronger policy targets and cost declines will continue.
In most Asian markets, subsidy-free renewable power will not be able to compete with coal power until 2025 or later, said Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie research director Alex Whitworth said: “Asia Pacific power generation investments are leading the world and expected to hit $2.4tn in the current decade, with renewables accounting for over half or $1.3tn of power investments.
“We expect coal to make up 55% of fossil fuel investments until 2030 but shrink to 30% in the 2030s as gas dominates.”
Top contributors to wind and solar investments in Asia Pacific include Mainland China, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan.
Between 2021 and 2030, annual additional wind and solar capacities will average at around 140GW per year, accounting for two-thirds of average total power capacity additions in the region by 2030.
China’s 1200GW of wind and solar capacity target by 2030 will require more than 534GW of renewables to be added over the next decade, lifting annual wind capacity to over 40GW from 2021 to 2030.
Along with strong renewables investments this decade, Wood Mackenzie predicts carbon emissions from the Asia Pacific power sector to peak at 7.3 billion tonnes (Bt) in 2025, which equates to 1.8 tonnes per person, less than half the level of most developed countries.
Whitworth said: “Although we expect a 47% drop in carbon emissions from the power sector from its peak of 7.3 Bt in 2025, inertia in the coal power fleet will prevent Asia Pacific from reaching carbon-free power by 2050.
“Adapting new emission reduction technologies such as carbon capture and storage and green fuels (hydrogen, ammonia, biomass etc.) into coal and gas generation will be key in reducing power sector emissions.”
